AI · resolved market
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe33bcf92bcc53cce793de8cb2fbf00f3ea48ba6d627b651919d3b6c23684d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 75c | 3,184$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 25c | 2,998$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…31a3backed No | 30c | 1,977$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 45c | 1,098$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 59c | 1,034$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.59 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 76c | 999.98$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 46c | 951.42$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.16 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 34c | 935.23$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 53c | 925.1$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 31c | 535.23$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…3accbacked Yes | 24c | 418.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +222%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 79c | 417.99$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes | 24c | 402.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +587.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 73c | 397.77$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 22c | 369.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.06 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed No | 13c | 360.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 44c | 309.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…e888backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 40c | 272.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 68c | 263.06$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 61c | 247.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…af23backed Yes | 18c | 221.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 40c | 208.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 198.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 45c | 191.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 166.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe84…e34ebacked Yes | 60c | 166.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 39c | 160$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…0e65backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…1685backed Yes | 69c | 140.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…657fbacked Yes | 49c | 123.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…2b42backed Yes | 17c | 118.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…aa56backed Yes | 50c | 111.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 33c | 107.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…a647backed No | 48c | 105.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…46a4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 87.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 82.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 18c | 73.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…1750backed Yes | 44c | 67.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 49c | 61.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked No | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ce…dd0abacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 29c | 54.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…300ebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 27c | 42.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 39.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 54c | 39.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d0c7backed No | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…61fdbacked Yes | 49c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 53c | 35.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 34c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 39c | 34.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 33.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…b5afbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 46c | 28.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 26.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 64c | 21.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…a018backed Yes | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 53c | 19.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…5f22backed Yes | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?this page
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.