Music · resolved market
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ea6027a90a7ea1911d67a75835c720857343b0edef9b5585f44a8dbe353a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Yes | 45c | 6,905$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 56c | 6,335$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.21 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 55c | 5,496$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.97 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 67c | 1,640$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 54c | 1,393$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.65 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 67c | 1,304$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.18 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 67c | 1,134$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 45c | 1,119$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 58c | 925.2$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 33c | 846$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 33c | 794$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed No | 80c | 628.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 33c | 581$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 33c | 553$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7b…974fbacked Yes | 38c | 526.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…7fd0backed Yes | 19c | 511.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 61c | 409.45$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 55c | 406.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 68c | 362.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 36c | 359.2$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…6696backed No | 62c | 358.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…b20fbacked Yes | 36c | 275.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed Yes | 37c | 269.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes | 35c | 254.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 53c | 229.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 65c | 227.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…19b8backed Yes | 46c | 222.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked No | 61c | 220.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…9b23backed Yes | 47c | 211.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 208.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 67c | 198.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…fc31backed No | 72c | 193.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…6b90backed No | 55c | 182.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 79c | 165.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 57c | 163.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 36c | 156.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked No | 79c | 154.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…9173backed Yes | 16c | 123.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 106.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 33c | 86.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…9a8abacked Yes | 37c | 81.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…232fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 19c | 67.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 64.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 63c | 57.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 53.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…6373backed Yes | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…62afbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 39.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked No | 58c | 37.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…3a02backed Yes | 43c | 35.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 34c | 34.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 34.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…a7a5backed No | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…3d42backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 68c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…1cc8backed No | 68c | 26.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 58c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…f495backed No | 61c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +124%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Sweden be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.