Music · resolved market
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd57b7e9d12129a78a4457a569a8f59def0e2083da5c16ad2b88c94e60ecaa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…3954backed Yes | 10c | 975.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 16c | 817.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…edd8backed Yes | 9c | 808.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b12…42e2backed Yes | 16c | 683.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f1…3ecebacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…2e00backed Yes | 9c | 557.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 9c | 483.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 428.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…a8e1backed Yes | 9c | 397.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 392.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…11cebacked Yes | 19c | 384.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 12c | 370.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 10c | 344.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 11c | 339.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e78fbacked Yes | 8c | 334.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a8…6e3ebacked Yes | 16c | 312.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8f…d72ebacked Yes | 32c | 303.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…296ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 10c | 289.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…7516backed Yes | 8c | 267.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…55fcbacked Yes | 9c | 253$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ee…5709backed Yes | 8c | 242.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 8c | 236.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 11c | 232.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 78c | 190$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 77c | 171.41$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…fdb3backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3294…3805backed Yes | 14c | 138.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…bb8dbacked Yes | 30c | 131.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…6927backed Yes | 18c | 120.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…9631backed Yes | 17c | 116.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 10c | 115.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…5ef7backed Yes | 13c | 103.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…9832backed Yes | 15c | 101.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…8eefbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…9a43backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 76c | 59.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 68c | 56.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…74b2backed Yes | 27c | 48.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…7219backed Yes | 32c | 46.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…e869backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Latvia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Sweden be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.