Music · resolved market
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64640a37b2a3595c8dc48a7022e5052b2a1a46d2ea60d2a26d6abf69d1e250e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 67c | 8,395$5,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.47 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 33c | 7,550$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.99 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 75c | 1,834$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.87 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 11c | 1,649$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +418.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,562$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Yes | 20c | 1,159$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 16c | 1,008$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.71 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 79c | 672.86$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.21 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 538.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…4681backed Yes | 17c | 509.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +199%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 25c | 503.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…6696backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked Yes | 28c | 423.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 13c | 371.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…173cbacked Yes | 18c | 356.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…38debacked Yes | 31c | 336.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Yes | 15c | 308.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 16c | 295.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.47 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 21c | 238.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 19c | 228.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +163%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 80c | 224.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.28 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 32c | 212.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 18c | 205.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 75c | 203.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 71c | 154$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…15cbbacked Yes | 19c | 150.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 24c | 148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…c163backed Yes | 13c | 134.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 13c | 122.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 30c | 111.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…966fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78f…79c6backed Yes | 19c | 102.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8819…ca2bbacked Yes | 19c | 101.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +431.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…cb73backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x600d…b5cebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…b1bcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…83bdbacked Yes | 26c | 96.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 34c | 94.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…2b94backed Yes | 18c | 92.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +288.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…0b39backed No | 36c | 91.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…5c81backed Yes | 19c | 80.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +76%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes | 14c | 75.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 65.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…962ebacked Yes | 22c | 65.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +352.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…11cebacked Yes | 16c | 63.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…b63dbacked Yes | 18c | 62.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…051cbacked Yes | 26c | 61.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 61.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc4…e096backed Yes | 20c | 60.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 40c | 59.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 77c | 58.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…8c92backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…b8b0backed Yes | 22c | 48.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +243.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x818c…a500backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…1438backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…e5e6backed Yes | 27c | 36.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 40c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…5655backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.