AI · resolved market
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cdecd943d6a7c7eff679f224b549cb3706a47ac34e82bc9bc8a221dd597d161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 72c | 1,592$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.03 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 12c | 1,200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,018$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…4b8fbacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 466.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1246backed No | 19c | 443.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…e863backed Yes | 76c | 323.97$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 9c | 317.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 46c | 303.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 80c | 289.21$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 29c | 269.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…883abacked Yes | 69c | 248.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…9f9cbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…4807backed No | 19c | 128.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…9694backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 41c | 34.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 52c | 25.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?this page
- Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes won
- Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.