Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c211e83cc315dfe820b6beaf1105a4dd29eb01efd770603d6bffc1f101c366

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Troy Trojansof Troy Trojans, Old Dominion Monarchs
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,489 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Troy Trojans	55c	6,924$3,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,146.66	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Troy Trojans	74c	4,000$2,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	301	39.2%118 W · 183 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Troy Trojans	73c	3,969$2,897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071.53	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	2,195$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.36	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	1,809$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.49	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Old Dominion Monarchs	42c	1,664$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.74	1,531	50.1%767 W · 764 L	+34.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	40c	1,479$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.53	1,540	41.3%636 W · 904 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	1,360$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.6	210	50%105 W · 105 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Troy Trojans	66c	1,323$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.55	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd19b…a105backed Troy Trojans	67c	1,251$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415.13	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	55c	1,107$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.13	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	1,058$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.59	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Troy Trojans	72c	1,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Troy Trojans	68c	999.97$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.81	434	50%217 W · 217 L	+13.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Old Dominion Monarchs	2c	899.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	104	8.7%9 W · 95 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	882$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.46	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	839.89$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.53	1,910	49.6%947 W · 963 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Troy Trojans	74c	672.79$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.79	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	591$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.66	746	49.2%367 W · 379 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	583.78$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.77	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	574.43$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.84	397	44.8%178 W · 219 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	35c	502$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.32	614	46.1%283 W · 331 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Old Dominion Monarchs	35c	438.19$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.7	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f5…8be3backed Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	370$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	127	33.9%43 W · 84 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	360$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	267	40.8%109 W · 158 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	35c	341.95$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.18	870	47.2%411 W · 459 L	-23.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	339$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.92	605	48.9%296 W · 309 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	36c	290.55$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.06	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	20c	285.72$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	493	45.4%224 W · 269 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	277.78$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	940	36.9%347 W · 593 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Troy Trojans	74c	269.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.53	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	248.63$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.8	383	43.6%167 W · 216 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Troy Trojans	72c	243.33$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.13	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Troy Trojans	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Troy Trojans	72c	197.03$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.17	990	45.6%451 W · 539 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Old Dominion Monarchs	39c	169.21$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.3	1,003	55.3%555 W · 448 L	+46.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Old Dominion Monarchs	30c	160.97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.84	1,983	26.4%523 W · 1,460 L	-55.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	158$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	152$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	1,511	47.8%722 W · 789 L	-35.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Troy Trojans	63c	151.41$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.51	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	135.18$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.15	974	47.9%467 W · 507 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Old Dominion Monarchs	30c	126.63$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	441	46.5%205 W · 236 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	119.89$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	536	35.6%191 W · 345 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Troy Trojans	72c	118$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.04	918	48.9%449 W · 469 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Old Dominion Monarchs	59c	106.14$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.6	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Old Dominion Monarchs	27c	105.81$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Old Dominion Monarchs	71c	98.45$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.54	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.33per pick	66cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	34c	98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.59	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	94.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	88.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	1,633	47.3%773 W · 860 L	+25.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Old Dominion Monarchs	24c	82.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Old Dominion Monarchs	40c	77.6$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	299	54.2%162 W · 137 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	254	36.6%93 W · 161 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4338…648ebacked Old Dominion Monarchs	56c	56.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.81	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-4.1wins	-0.30per pick	58cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Troy Trojans	74c	54.42$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.15	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Troy Trojans	67c	50.03$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.51	255	44.3%113 W · 142 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1343…19a2backed Troy Trojans	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Old Dominion Monarchs	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2,194	33.4%733 W · 1,461 L	+19.2wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Troy Trojans	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	643	22.9%147 W · 496 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Old Dominion Monarchs	28c	46.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+10.9wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+19%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Old Dominion Monarchs	39c	44.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	703	49.6%349 W · 354 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Old Dominion Monarchs	33c	43.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f3e…380cbacked Troy Trojans	52c	40.81$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Troy Trojans	63c	37.98$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.07	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Troy Trojans	74c	35$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a6…c18abacked Old Dominion Monarchs	33c	34.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Old Dominion Monarchs	38c	33.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	668	31.4%210 W · 458 L	-43.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2745…a5fbbacked Troy Trojans	67c	33.37$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Troy Trojans	72c	33$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	350	50.3%176 W · 174 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Troy Trojans	62c	32.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	181	67.4%122 W · 59 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Troy Trojans	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Troy Trojans	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Troy Trojans	65c	28.83$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.23	186	54.3%101 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Old Dominion Monarchs	50c	26.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc728…42efbacked Troy Trojans	74c	25.88$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.73	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.6wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Old Dominion Monarchs	42c	25.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Old Dominion Monarchs	42c	25.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	78	12.8%10 W · 68 L	-17.2wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Troy Trojans	66c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.86	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x128f…47afbacked Troy Trojans	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchsthis page
Spread: Troy Trojans (-7.5)Old Dominion Monarchs won
Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: O/U 152.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event