Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb11ee141d9480642f124eeef710398b86b4a00cee95003801da61068098e08a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 4,826$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.75 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 3,213$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.74 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 17c | 2,107$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.63 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 2,050$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 1,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 819.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 803.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 731.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 708.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 571.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 411.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 406.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 9c | 390.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 32.1%62 W · 131 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 344.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 342.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 269.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 192$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 189.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…5cfabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…50cabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 18c | 81.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…d0f5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 81.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsthis page
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 164.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-13.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-14.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.