Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs McCartney Kessler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0310777d73ce05df22249db38dead2f670c79dbcfecb5f82e8072bbbd6eaaa06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Kessler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Kessler | 23c | 16,751$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,852.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pegula | 77c | 3,446$2,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.76 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Pegula | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Pegula | 77c | 2,613$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.92 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kessler | 4c | 2,149$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pegula | 77c | 1,338$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.66 | 780 | 52.7%411 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Pegula | 77c | 1,331$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Pegula | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pegula | 77c | 880$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Kessler | 22c | 828.71$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Pegula | 79c | 787$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 229 | 65.9%151 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…6eb8backed Pegula | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Kessler | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Kessler | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kessler | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Pegula | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Kessler | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Pegula | 79c | 262$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Pegula | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Pegula | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kessler | 21c | 251$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Pegula | 77c | 233.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Pegula | 76c | 216.62$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Kessler | 24c | 144.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Pegula | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kessler | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Pegula | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Kessler | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pegula | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 280 | 42.9%120 W · 160 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Pegula | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Pegula | 77c | 97.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Kessler | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Kessler | 22c | 88.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Pegula | 80c | 71.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…fcbfbacked Pegula | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…db0ebacked Pegula | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Pegula | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Pegula | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Pegula | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kessler | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…bb66backed Pegula | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b96…7b25backed Pegula | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Pegula | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Pegula | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…8179backed Pegula | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…dec3backed Pegula | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Pegula | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…89f4backed Pegula | 77c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…fd71backed Pegula | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…0a08backed Pegula | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 77cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…2982backed Pegula | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs McCartney Kesslerthis page
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.