NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45658aece33e7cbe3de25e5a0a3a07444851cbddedab316e8c38d295cc39b03b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 36c | 527.12$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 58c | 456$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 43c | 399.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 58c | 352.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.51 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 42c | 290$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Under | 44c | 228.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 200.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Over | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Over | 56c | 194.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 193.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 58c | 182.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Over | 65c | 154.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 66c | 151.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 42c | 145$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 133$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Over | 58c | 130.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 120.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 53.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Under | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 47.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Under | 70c | 42.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 129 | 61.2%79 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 61c | 36.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c4dabacked Under | 41c | 35.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 50c | 30.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…153cbacked Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…b828backed Over | 59c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5this page
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 15.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Khris Middleton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Khris Middleton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 16.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.