NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e71ed53e38f772bb227526eda9755db572e0a604147e4db2bde73f7dbf356b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Mavericks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Grizzlies | 60c | 10,299$6,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,127.07 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Grizzlies | 58c | 9,520$5,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,998.4 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 40c | 3,675$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Mavericks | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 41c | 1,823$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Mavericks | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 40c | 1,013$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Grizzlies | 57c | 918$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 869.5$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.58 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 40c | 562.5$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 56c | 408.4$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Grizzlies | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 272 | 46.7%127 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Grizzlies | 55c | 338.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Mavericks | 45c | 284.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 283.26$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…b7eabacked Grizzlies | 58c | 264.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 43c | 222.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Mavericks | 40c | 201$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Grizzlies | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Mavericks | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Mavericks | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Mavericks | 43c | 140.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Grizzlies | 58c | 117.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efa0backed Mavericks | 40c | 98.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Mavericks | 40c | 95.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Grizzlies | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Mavericks | 46c | 79.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Mavericks | 41c | 78.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies | 58c | 78.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Mavericks | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies | 62c | 75.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ced…393ebacked Mavericks | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb36d…de27backed Grizzlies | 59c | 73.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Mavericks | 40c | 71.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Mavericks | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Mavericks | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…b082backed Grizzlies | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 57c | 50.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Mavericks | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Grizzlies | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 42c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Grizzlies | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Grizzlies | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Grizzlies | 70c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)this page
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 15.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Khris Middleton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Khris Middleton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 16.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.