Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ca6c3e2a63296f4ae46bb3271b0cf8a8a43775e9a60edcd3eebe745505d72d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Over | 59c | 2,298$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,569$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 47c | 1,054$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.59 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 969.96$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.47 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 491.49$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 469.76$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Under | 38c | 443.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 40c | 378.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…ea61backed Over | 62c | 226.41$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 214.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 31c | 178.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 59c | 169.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 142.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 64c | 141.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 40c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 73.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 68.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 34c | 68.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 31c | 59.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 54.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Over | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…2918backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 43.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 41.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…588cbacked Over | 53c | 33.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 57c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 79c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.