Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e7d40a18ab18180c7c465b3eeea070adc8a85db37201f085a58b2296a33ccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Yes | 12c | 12,661$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 9c | 9,650$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.38 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 8c | 4,687$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.94 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 2,940$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,596$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…b7cdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 1,587$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 115 | 20.9%24 W · 91 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 7c | 1,407$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…fab4backed Yes | 8c | 1,007$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 818.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 5c | 699.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 8c | 699.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Yes | 9c | 669.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 4c | 470.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…e87abacked Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 10c | 237.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…21dbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will CD Tondela vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.