Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ddfed706d6ec016eefa5aaf1a482696d3d22384b14fc38d9a66df970dce2f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,799.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 15,577$9,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,541.77 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 6,934$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.42 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 6,558$3,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.65 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Yes | 44c | 6,364$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 3,244$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.93 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 39c | 3,120$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 42c | 1,808$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 954.54$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.84 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 61c | 844.66$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.42 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 819.17$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 40c | 555.15$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.12 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 24c | 522.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 42c | 469.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 414.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 58c | 399.16$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.65 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed No | 77c | 390.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 11c | 360.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 42c | 357.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…de18backed Yes | 43c | 357.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 21c | 296.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 41c | 277.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 64c | 277.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 62c | 276.89$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 252.35$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 17c | 242.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 40c | 240.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…8691backed Yes | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…9c0abacked Yes | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 27c | 166.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 154.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 137.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 82.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…524abacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 59c | 56.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Yes | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 40.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed No | 58c | 39.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 41c | 36.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Yes | 41c | 31.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 60c | 28.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 26.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked No | 62c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…8d6ebacked No | 63c | 16.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-30?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.