Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c5d5496c9895373e0908ed7859477d370254231fdb971b14ec25678c8e8eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 6,264$4,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,412.08 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes | 26c | 4,671$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,600$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 1c | 2,968$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,755$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.5 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,189$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,405$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,231$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 1,143$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.97 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,100$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 836.97$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.99 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 697.01$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.08 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 688$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.12 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 663.78$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.88 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 580.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.37 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed No | 43c | 567.67$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed No | 76c | 494.99$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 488.12$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.21 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…29b4backed Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 76c | 416.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 4c | 406$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 76c | 298$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 25c | 190.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 76c | 187$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…e8efbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…ffd6backed No | 75c | 118.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 112.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 24c | 65.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 36c | 65.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 62.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…471fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 75c | 38.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked No | 43c | 35.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 34.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked No | 43c | 32.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…6ecabacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…5f65backed Yes | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…8507backed Yes | 67c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…676fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 13.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -7.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.