Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04bb8a1369289ed0030b6bc422bb43fcbc48f3c955fb5ce13ff7f8880116f74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 8,876$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.94 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Over | 64c | 7,707$4,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 2,277$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.23 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 62c | 2,002$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 1,542$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.54 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 61c | 1,192$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.93 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 961.32$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 880.68$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.59 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 62c | 804.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.51 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 39c | 714.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.69 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 630.93$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.93 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 62c | 613.46$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 36c | 583$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…f593backed Under | 24c | 482$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 51c | 460$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 373.21$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 56c | 356.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 63c | 278.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 73c | 274.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…bb43backed Over | 62c | 267.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 240.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 42c | 235.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 39c | 234.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222c…0772backed Under | 40c | 227.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 65c | 225.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 41c | 215.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 62c | 204.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…2b59backed Over | 56c | 192.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 53c | 188.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…a92dbacked Over | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 168$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 60c | 167.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 61c | 162.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 50c | 141.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…acacbacked Over | 58c | 137.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 42c | 130.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 42c | 126.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 37c | 113.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 101.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 38c | 85.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 133 | 62.4%83 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 78.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Over | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 57c | 50.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…a474backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 32c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 34.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 62c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…9cd3backed Over | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…867dbacked Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 64c | 22.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Under | 51c | 21.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.