Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27af1d2e4b2630233324e694c57dd7614126ba1215863603ea9eabba81524715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 7,700$4,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,438.49 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 41c | 5,384$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.56 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 61c | 3,554$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.69 | 108 | 54.6%59 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 3,302$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.71 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 40c | 2,103$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.93 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…b1a4backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 1,367$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.19 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 974.77$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.21 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 39c | 923.87$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.56 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 40c | 857.8$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 53c | 813$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.11 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…f593backed Under | 50c | 645.1$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 39c | 644.23$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.98 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 51c | 592.73$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 530.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.98 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 41c | 471.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.02 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 457.6$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.55 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 50c | 424.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 35c | 423$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.72 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 54c | 367.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 41c | 264.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 39c | 258.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 39c | 254.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 71c | 230$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 206.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 62c | 201.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 37c | 191.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 191.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 160$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 42c | 152.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 51c | 150.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 39c | 149.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 39c | 147.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 116.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 42c | 108.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 48c | 105.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 53c | 102$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 49c | 101.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 66c | 88.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 83.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 29c | 77.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 59c | 55.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 51c | 45.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…9f93backed Over | 39c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 57c | 31.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +11.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over | 39c | 27.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 63c | 24.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.