NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf1e54d8a5ee6ce9f1a414c92791d3960f484d27953a12fddc209da2f9b4ba3

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $711,750
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $713,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $711,750 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Bulls	48c	605,886$290,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315,060.92	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets	52c	433,335$225,334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225,334.17	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nets	52c	200,000$104,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104,000	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7caf…058bbacked Bulls	48c	40,000$19,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,799.98	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.25per pick	52cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Bulls	48c	25,156$12,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,081.25	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets	52c	20,000$10,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,400	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Nets	52c	9,150$4,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,758	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	47c	7,033$3,311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,721.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Nets	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,120	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Nets	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	773	48.5%375 W · 398 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bulls	48c	4,600$2,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,392	584	49.7%290 W · 294 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bulls	48c	4,462$2,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,320.17	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Bulls	48c	4,446$2,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,311.83	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd5…9c28backed Nets	52c	3,590$1,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,866.8	104	45.2%47 W · 57 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Nets	54c	3,349$1,824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,823.84	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets	52c	3,271$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699.95	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Nets	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	433	48.5%210 W · 223 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Nets	53c	2,192$1,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Nets	53c	2,177$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.92	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-4.3wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Nets	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls	46c	1,891$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,021.14	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	52c	1,506$788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.06	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	52c	1,200$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Nets	50c	1,068$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.47	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Bulls	49c	901.2$442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.61	89	61.8%55 W · 34 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Nets	24c	708.33$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Nets	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe7…09f9backed Nets	53c	466.04$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Bulls	49c	451.34$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.18	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	51c	419.35$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.87	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Bulls	49c	419.35$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.87	279	39.8%111 W · 168 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…2275backed Nets	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nets	53c	335.43$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.78	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Nets	49c	307.87$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.69	166	58.4%97 W · 69 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x656b…afbcbacked Bulls	49c	306.12$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.72	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Nets	52c	236.75$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.11	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ed…a870backed Nets	53c	206.19$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.28	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x447f…d110backed Nets	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	+8.6wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+25%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1569…3c17backed Nets	37c	135.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Nets	53c	126.21$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.89	231	44.2%102 W · 129 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Nets	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	358	44.1%158 W · 200 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d6…f9eabacked Nets	54c	111.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Bulls	48c	106.25$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.25	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-12.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b44…5685backed Nets	52c	105.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	58	36.2%21 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2af0…8473backed Nets	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44d8…111ebacked Bulls	49c	89.24$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.51	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe326…23b0backed Nets	53c	83$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2db…be15backed Nets	24c	81$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8490…ecfabacked Nets	53c	80.91$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Nets	53c	78.83$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	362	47.5%172 W · 190 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls	48c	76.08$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.87	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Nets	52c	66.45$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.55	244	54.1%132 W · 112 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Nets	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	50%42 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…4b98backed Nets	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf417…0cf5backed Nets	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Nets	52c	51.25$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	180	51.1%92 W · 88 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Bulls	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Nets	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	385	45.7%176 W · 209 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…a77bbacked Nets	53c	48.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Bulls	49c	47.2$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.07	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Bulls	49c	46.04$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	83	57.8%48 W · 35 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bf…0f9bbacked Bulls	49c	44.96$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.93	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Nets	53c	44.91$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	120	62.5%75 W · 45 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Nets	52c	43.45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1182…3751backed Nets	52c	43.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+4.0wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Nets	32c	40.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	48c	39.94$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.77	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b4…fb4ebacked Nets	50c	39.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Bulls	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	226	46.9%106 W · 120 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236a…1a3ebacked Nets	53c	28.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	83	41%34 W · 49 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fd8…8593backed Bulls	49c	23.81$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad0…cdc2backed Nets	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.8wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event