NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac233ae761e2da06c89c4b2df73b40286b654b444abbe79477549b422c816256

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,589 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3df8…3ee8backed Bulls	49c	424.67$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets	51c	403.67$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.87	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cd…9417backed Nets	53c	128$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.84	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Nets	54c	121$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.34	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Nets	53c	95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.35	87	59.8%52 W · 35 L	+7.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Nets	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked Bulls	47c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.19	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Bulls	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Bulls	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…6d13backed Bulls	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9840…cb31backed Bulls	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ae41backed Bulls	47c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc17…53b6backed Bulls	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd84f…0475backed Bulls	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2877…dc5bbacked Bulls	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d2d…ffcebacked Bulls	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Bulls	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1H Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event