NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06cf5efe04750f3523723034e135d62e847771d48e98f8beb6f908cf7f83c3cf

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,068 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	55c	9,875$5,453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,422.32	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets	44c	6,143$2,703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,702.95	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls	56c	3,140$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,390.39	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef2…bd66backed Bulls	53c	2,678$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,258.66	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa25c…838ebacked Nets	47c	2,674$1,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,256.78	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b3…097abacked Bulls	53c	2,653$1,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,246.91	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae58…bc91backed Nets	47c	2,652$1,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,246.44	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a27…9757backed Bulls	53c	2,644$1,401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,242.68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x274a…dca4backed Nets	47c	2,641$1,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,241.27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x170a…6fa2backed Nets	47c	2,635$1,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,238.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf58b…fe75backed Bulls	53c	2,627$1,392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,234.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nets	44c	2,478$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.22	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9191…b305backed Nets	47c	2,374$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,115.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4a…4f4dbacked Bulls	53c	2,366$1,254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,112.02	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3293…5101backed Nets	47c	2,363$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4fc…2ad1backed Bulls	53c	2,357$1,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,107.79	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2c…acedbacked Bulls	53c	2,354$1,248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,106.38	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+95.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb96…ec4bbacked Nets	47c	2,352$1,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.44	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d89…455fbacked Bulls	53c	2,332$1,236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.04	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	52cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1f…41ccbacked Nets	47c	2,320$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…14adbacked Nets	47c	2,237$1,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,051.47	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x454f…04e7backed Bulls	53c	2,237$1,186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,051.39	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd444…aba5backed Nets	47c	1,980$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	43c	1,962$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.99	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls	55c	1,214$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.55	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nets	44c	1,210$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.4	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	44c	1,116$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.03	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	46c	1,072$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.32	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nets	45c	900$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bulls	55c	878$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.06	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Bulls	55c	454.17$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.17	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Bulls	54c	399.99$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bulls	55c	300$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe81…d081backed Bulls	55c	272.73$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.73	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bulls	55c	227.27$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.27	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Bulls	57c	226.49$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.49	335	54.6%183 W · 152 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Nets	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Bulls	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets	27c	179.93$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nets	43c	175.42$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.17	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nets	45c	171.16$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.02	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Bulls	56c	153.54$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.54	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nets	10c	131.68$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Nets	14c	113.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	271	44.3%120 W · 151 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Nets	26c	111.36$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Nets	45c	107.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.51	362	47.5%172 W · 190 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80ab…f313backed Bulls	57c	105.26$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.26	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Nets	46c	100.17$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.08	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4161…272dbacked Bulls	56c	91.07$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.07	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Bulls	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Bulls	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Bulls	56c	90.88$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.98	243	63.8%155 W · 88 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Bulls	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	187	43.3%81 W · 106 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked Nets	45c	86.85$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.25	147	54.4%80 W · 67 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Bulls	64c	85.19$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.67	230	43%99 W · 131 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bulls	56c	84.26$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Bulls	57c	82.6$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.52	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf417…0cf5backed Nets	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Bulls	55c	61.42$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.64	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Nets	44c	60.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Bulls	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	144	45.8%66 W · 78 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Nets	45c	59.22$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-4.3wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Nets	45c	56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Bulls	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0f…84b9backed Nets	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	64.1%41 W · 23 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nets	25c	52.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Bulls	54c	46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.16	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Bulls	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcb…0047backed Nets	47c	42.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.22per pick	49cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Nets	44c	40.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nets	37c	37.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Bulls	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Bulls	54c	34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.64	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8403…e552backed Nets	45c	33.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Nets	43c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb3e…dc41backed Bulls	70c	28.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.38	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15d…d581backed Bulls	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f25…81f6backed Bulls	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Bulls	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecec…d72fbacked Nets	45c	26.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Nets	46c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bulls	54c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Nets	45c	23.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls	55c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Nets	46c	21.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Bulls	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfd…920fbacked Bulls	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event