NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3388a4ed3fd82b89b747209c7490cb1b1a6b9b93acde94fcd0157044b84af64

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,643 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x98da…a9ebbacked Bulls	53c	717.62$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.32	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets	47c	700.62$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.29	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb470…ba61backed Nets	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Bulls	49c	391$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.41	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nets	46c	368.86$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.68	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Bulls	51c	101$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.49	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Nets	50c	69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Nets	50c	54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Bulls	50c	45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nets	46c	43.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Bulls	54c	33.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.33	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets	47c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2d…ffcebacked Bulls	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Nets	49c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Nets	49c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Bulls	50c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Bulls	50c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…b395backed Nets	49c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event