NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 220.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720296459f06a203cdbb1aa04332b8144261541c5068573fe9d86805d813c2d1

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,992 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5cae…a00abacked Over	52c	25,000$12,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,117.03	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Under	45c	9,476$4,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,264.02	170	31.8%54 W · 116 L	-24.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	7,466$3,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,600.46	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under	46c	4,000$1,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,840	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	48c	2,679$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,280	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	51c	1,743$886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	54c	960$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.6	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over	54c	855.65$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.6	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Under	46c	847.83$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over	55c	727$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.15	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	45c	590$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.5	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	522$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	55c	505$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.25	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Over	56c	461.93$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.25	113	61.9%70 W · 43 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under	48c	458.62$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.17	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Over	54c	433.33$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.33	111	59.5%66 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Over	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under	47c	343$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.21	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Over	49c	296.08$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	48c	269.16$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.87	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Under	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	50.6%79 W · 77 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Under	48c	192.25$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.28	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	48c	175.24$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.12	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Over	52c	153.85$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	151	49%74 W · 77 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	49c	140.75$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.83	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	55c	81.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.82	348	49.7%173 W · 175 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x31c0…2893backed Over	49c	78.35$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.96	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Under	48c	62.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.17	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Over	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd7…0486backed Under	46c	23.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Bulls: O/U 220.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event