TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,629,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,712,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,629,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,094 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe686…13cbbacked Cavaliers33c314,929$104,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,686.472937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Thunder66c204,399$135,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,801.619560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder67c85,870$57,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,620.761,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Cavaliers33c85,000$28,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,299.9351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cavaliers3c57,543$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.931,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Cavaliers23c55,000$12,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,699.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Thunder66c41,000$27,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,94014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Thunder67c33,438$22,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,978.892,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers17c31,349$5,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,327.954,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Cavaliers33c29,000$9,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,569.9517250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Cavaliers34c26,727$9,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,087.1560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26db…6191backed Thunder67c26,050$17,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,524.374564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Thunder69c24,900$17,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,720.9819653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76b3…04e1backed Thunder67c22,200$14,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3261050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cavaliers18c21,663$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,874.091,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Cavaliers33c21,060$6,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.0535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Thunder68c20,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Thunder67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6002070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Cavaliers32c20,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.962931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Cavaliers1c18,952$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.675213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570f…58c6backed Cavaliers0c18,290$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3c…e646backed Thunder65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2501566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Cavaliers34c15,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Thunder67c14,925$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,925.3776746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Cavaliers33c14,759$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,870.571850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724b…e780backed Thunder67c14,480$9,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,778.42259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Thunder67c14,200$9,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,685.8944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder72c13,949$10,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,914.412,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder66c13,846$9,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b1…e667backed Cavaliers2c13,738$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.672458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cavaliers4c12,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Thunder67c10,907$7,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,634.5272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5913…a09ebacked Thunder69c10,078$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.521957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Cavaliers10c9,972$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.8895641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Thunder67c9,121$6,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Thunder77c9,063$6,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.5247856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder66c8,970$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.862351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Cavaliers33c8,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6406540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Thunder78c7,758$6,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder67c7,503$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.551,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8384…9057backed Cavaliers35c7,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…9f84backed Cavaliers35c7,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Cavaliers34c7,299$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.554327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder66c7,168$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.0359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Cavaliers14c7,094$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.3448448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Thunder67c7,000$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,31032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Cavaliers0c6,991$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.848820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Cavaliers32c6,428$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.439958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Thunder67c6,330$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.2937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Thunder77c6,044$4,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.535345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Thunder66c5,890$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.645251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Cavaliers31c5,744$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.7236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder66c5,321$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.464,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Cavaliers34c5,294$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Thunder74c5,272$3,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.4713250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Thunder68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Thunder67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65010235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Cavaliers32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9635450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Thunder66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cavaliers12c4,723$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.9883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Cavaliers33c4,607$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x893c…1c47backed Cavaliers32c4,600$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.911457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Cavaliers34c4,500$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Cavaliers34c4,412$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Cavaliers32c4,409$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.8659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers29c4,296$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.933,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Cavaliers19c4,273$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.6410740.2%43 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers24c4,240$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.112,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155d…2525backed Thunder68c4,160$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.123961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Cavaliers32c4,050$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2961,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a0…68fdbacked Cavaliers1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+63%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Thunder66c4,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9835251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Cavaliers33c3,878$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.7380737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Cavaliers5c3,797$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Thunder79c3,788$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.3514751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Thunder67c3,347$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.5223256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Cavaliers20c3,307$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65350838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Cavaliers33c3,206$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05833735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8d…6e40backed Cavaliers33c3,100$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0231145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Thunder67c3,079$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.13050%15 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Cavaliers33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Cavaliers33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Thunder66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cavaliers33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.3429748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…62bdbacked Cavaliers33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9901936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Cavaliers34c2,947$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.096747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Thunder64c2,892$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.971,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Cavaliers32c2,752$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.8155346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Thunder69c2,727$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.4522459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xface…d8a2backed Thunder68c2,694$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.687154.9%39 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Cavaliers27c2,623$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Thunder79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5254868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Cavaliers34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.991,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Cavaliers31c2,405$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.6761336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers24c2,391$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.33,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Cavaliers1c2,316$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b55…9e46backed Cavaliers1c2,216$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Cavaliers33c2,200$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Thunder68c2,191$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.0720454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.