NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e8cbd6e7c0a3cd9ce30f59b3255e96adec7c70356f44735dbf47eb3e5bb690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 51c | 13,646$6,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,959.32 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 10,282$5,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,172.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 49c | 8,647$4,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410.03 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 3c | 6,666$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 5,234$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.13 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 4c | 3,125$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 52c | 2,841$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…a0e4backed Over | 50c | 2,681$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.27 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 50c | 2,197$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.88 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 1,814$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 51c | 1,080$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…9ad1backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 869$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 51c | 805$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.45 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 51c | 545.61$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.26 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…59cebacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 10c | 471.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 34c | 170.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 81.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 63.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 54.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…56febacked Over | 48c | 33.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 32.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Over | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Under | 58c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…84a9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. CavaliersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.