NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e759e06b116432723ae7ef1fe13e5082a5763352c616a3c8516e20bdca01739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9be…6515backed Thunder | 44c | 6,518$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…1eecbacked Thunder | 44c | 6,262$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,506.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…f3afbacked Thunder | 44c | 6,124$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,429.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d37…6a58backed Thunder | 44c | 6,008$2,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002b…b7bcbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 3,303$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…1f9bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 3,244$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…75c4backed Cavaliers | 56c | 3,221$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8a…b735backed Cavaliers | 56c | 3,157$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…587bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 3,133$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…069abacked Cavaliers | 56c | 3,078$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…d9bebacked Cavaliers | 56c | 2,998$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…abd0backed Cavaliers | 56c | 2,778$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…519bbacked Thunder | 44c | 2,233$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…9d54backed Thunder | 44c | 2,122$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb23…4affbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,855$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed Thunder | 44c | 1,818$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…933bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,774$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 44c | 1,705$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.97 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1f…57bebacked Thunder | 44c | 1,678$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,566$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.62 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…22b3backed Thunder | 44c | 1,386$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…0362backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,303$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 66c | 1,206$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,113$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4e…875fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,055$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Cavaliers | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 670.77$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 45c | 633.16$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 42c | 532.34$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Cavaliers | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…f776backed Cavaliers | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…84f2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 414$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…2246backed Cavaliers | 56c | 402$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…86dabacked Cavaliers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Cavaliers | 45c | 342$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Thunder | 43c | 308.13$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Thunder | 57c | 293.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder | 44c | 288$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 56c | 186$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…e3c6backed Cavaliers | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Thunder | 68c | 145.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Thunder | 44c | 138.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Thunder | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 105.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Cavaliers | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Thunder | 43c | 76.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Cavaliers | 24c | 67.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Thunder | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…11d4backed Cavaliers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Thunder | 62c | 51.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…58bebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 51.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Thunder | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Cavaliers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Cavaliers | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Cavaliers | 26c | 40.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Cavaliers | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Thunder | 44c | 30.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 49c | 26.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 48c | 25.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…ea50backed Cavaliers | 52c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…cfb2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Thunder | 56c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…33a9backed Cavaliers | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. CavaliersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.