NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd306fb60b96878065a3aaa25db9813cca3f0af887f1a603a6a1c02b160689951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Under | 53c | 17,933$9,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,504.36 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 7,989$3,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.56 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,369$3,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…b20dbacked Under | 55c | 4,594$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 52c | 4,333$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.13 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f60…0df9backed Under | 55c | 4,296$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 54c | 2,756$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.84 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 2,083$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.33 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…c78cbacked Over | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c6…2d59backed Over | 45c | 1,283$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Under | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…209fbacked Over | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…88aabacked Over | 45c | 1,154$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…2274backed Over | 45c | 1,115$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…e772backed Over | 45c | 1,040$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.24 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…ab7abacked Over | 45c | 902$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…fe77backed Over | 45c | 896$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 57c | 795.36$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.35 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 745.83$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.29 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 43c | 600.94$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.42 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Under | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 17c | 576.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…59cebacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 42c | 471.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.09 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 44c | 424$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.44 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 53c | 418.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.67 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 44c | 399.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 355.36$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 43c | 330$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 194.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 45c | 163.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Under | 60c | 129.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 46c | 112.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Over | 46c | 103.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked Over | 47c | 93.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 53c | 85.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…3aa4backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Over | 46c | 63.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 48c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Under | 42c | 40.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…b14cbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 48c | 39.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Under | 56c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 53c | 19.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. CavaliersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.