Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d81c462cdb0d952af0dc1b3cf716048c955e5aa78b1af135392769b0c3cc58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,934 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 3,055$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.8 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,346$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.68 | 2,013 | 39.4%794 W · 1,219 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,127$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.87 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 3c | 994.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 982.53$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 550.72$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.9 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +1,112.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 30c | 499.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…2320backed Over | 71c | 499.49$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 57c | 493.87$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 474.1$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 312 | 51.9%162 W · 150 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 43c | 461.1$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.83 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 38c | 397.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.6 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 45c | 384.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 36c | 358.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 29c | 342.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 7c | 293.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 278.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked Over | 72c | 275.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 60c | 256.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 39c | 254.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.11 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 63c | 247.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 44c | 199.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Under | 52c | 198.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 27c | 174.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 72c | 166.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 37c | 163.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Under | 52c | 160.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 49c | 154.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 145$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 346 | 53.8%186 W · 160 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 70c | 141.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 50c | 139.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 124.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 72c | 102.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 26c | 99.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 30c | 84.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 387 | 47.8%185 W · 202 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Over | 73c | 81.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 77.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 68c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 70c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Over | 70c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 71c | 69.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 30c | 63.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 433 | 55%238 W · 195 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 57.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 36c | 55.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 49.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 30c | 49.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 38c | 47.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Over | 43c | 46.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 44.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 53.5%357 W · 310 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 41.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 39c | 38.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 65c | 38.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…8422backed Under | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Over | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…9c61backed Over | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 72c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 25.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 52c | 23.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 68c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 994 | 44.7%444 W · 550 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…296dbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Over | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.