Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fdba6e0f9ee2c5e4ad7c0fb78c15a85bb29be95f5b009e39f2cc798b4ea04a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7ab…1bdbbacked No | 2c | 26,922$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 17,060$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.12 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,508$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 1c | 6,431$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…8a22backed No | 4c | 6,248$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…f192backed No | 3c | 4,711$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +110%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…5afcbacked No | 2c | 4,155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…916ebacked No | 3c | 3,634$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 3c | 3,091$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95f3…61b4backed No | 4c | 2,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…abacbacked No | 2c | 2,644$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 2,634$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 2c | 2,600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…919ebacked No | 4c | 2,572$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…2d6abacked No | 2c | 2,482$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…1b61backed No | 4c | 2,128$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…17a3backed No | 1c | 2,053$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 9c | 1,900$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…d6a0backed No | 2c | 1,837$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…8d6cbacked No | 5c | 1,700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f3…43a4backed No | 4c | 1,672$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…4041backed No | 2c | 1,588$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 1,539$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 42c | 1,493$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.93 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 1,401$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.87 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 3c | 1,399$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0747…95d3backed No | 2c | 1,374$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 1,331$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,325$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…06ecbacked No | 4c | 1,258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…8ab0backed No | 4c | 1,251$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 13c | 1,200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 49c | 1,142$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.56 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 2c | 1,142$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…8465backed No | 1c | 1,098$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 1,095$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…54bebacked No | 7c | 1,012$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 1c | 1,007$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…efbbbacked No | 2c | 973.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 964.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 914.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 912.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked No | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 869.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…fe0bbacked No | 1c | 843.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…2d4dbacked No | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 3c | 785.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…1244backed No | 3c | 758.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 12c | 750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…3529backed No | 3c | 707.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…321ebacked No | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed No | 2c | 638.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 25cpaid | +417.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…d571backed No | 3c | 623.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked No | 58c | 610.98$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…c0f5backed No | 4c | 568.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd481…4adabacked No | 4c | 566.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked No | 2c | 557.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…fdc1backed No | 3c | 542.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…5a11backed No | 3c | 515.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…20bebacked No | 3c | 500.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…acc1backed No | 4c | 489.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 59c | 475.4$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.63 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 56c | 403.28$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236c…c793backed No | 59c | 343.41$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 4c | 268.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 40c | 267.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…9287backed Yes | 71c | 212.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 56c | 183.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6dfdbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked No | 59c | 165.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…22f7backed No | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…8c6bbacked No | 60c | 100.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…0549backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 43c | 93.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…cfc9backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…39b6backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 75.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d62…fddabacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 45c | 69.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd89…7a8bbacked Yes | 43c | 59.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 59c | 58.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…82c8backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4276…84e9backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.