Middle East · resolved market
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3783238920bcbd57fc901ed1238d4b63fae83c366af3b0ee295b63aaaed439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,477$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 78c | 4,274$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.35 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 4,116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 3,701$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,760$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,464$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 28c | 2,430$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 67c | 2,407$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.12 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965a…c69cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,230$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…4b3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 25c | 2,044$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.36 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,852$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,830$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 79c | 1,825$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.84 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,781$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,664$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…5a74backed Yes | 3c | 1,645$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…8be1backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…ebedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,627$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,593$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,259$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 3c | 1,224$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…e330backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.42 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…6d0ebacked Yes | 2c | 851.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 12c | 846.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 800.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54b…48f3backed Yes | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 735.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b6…7a5ebacked Yes | 2c | 729.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 2c | 601.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…8cd3backed Yes | 20c | 600.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…0115backed Yes | 9c | 581.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +135%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 6c | 525.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 79c | 505.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 75c | 449.96$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Yes | 3c | 406.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 72c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…cd40backed Yes | 4c | 349.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 15c | 331.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…ab50backed Yes | 20c | 254.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 70c | 241$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…b6cebacked Yes | 5c | 237.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…7276backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…a4e3backed Yes | 7c | 163.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436d…68e5backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 19c | 142.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…68aebacked Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 30c | 128.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…d76abacked No | 79c | 106.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 74c | 102.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2e…fd7dbacked Yes | 26c | 53.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 72c | 50.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…e7c9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.