Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec9ab2d91c112eb2c9b8ac72608ac16aca7b0072b4a022876d460781e514b7c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 19c | 2,680$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,841$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,366$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.52 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,296$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.33 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 1,256$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 916.09$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 74c | 900$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 15c | 825$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 16c | 797.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 74c | 784.24$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 46c | 776.05$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 18c | 705.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 17c | 692.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 50c | 596.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.22 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…3c1fbacked Yes | 9c | 592.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 14c | 580$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 13c | 568.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 13c | 492$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 466.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 414.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 9c | 394.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 57c | 327.69$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 13c | 306$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 47c | 293.36$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 289.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 17c | 288.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed Yes | 38c | 268.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 46c | 259.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 15c | 209.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 191.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 31c | 188.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 178.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 19c | 177.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 27c | 163.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 127.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 122.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…19ccbacked No | 48c | 104.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 30c | 102.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 75c | 93.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 25c | 90.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 14c | 83.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…e6cfbacked Yes | 54c | 80.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 35c | 79.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 22c | 79.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 27c | 78.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 19c | 74.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 67c | 73.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 15c | 68.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 75c | 64.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 61.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…76a2backed Yes | 43c | 55.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…05fdbacked No | 49c | 48.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…3995backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 48c | 41.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 62c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +219.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 53c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…62e6backed No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.