Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a6ab7a76400dd936feb680fe6c42c1685c77579eadfd4c87fd190f3afbfd30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 76c | 1,315$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 27c | 849.95$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 24c | 647$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 24c | 639$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 24c | 570$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes | 22c | 466.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 21c | 441.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 72c | 417.25$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 360.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 76c | 332$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 19c | 307.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 60c | 259.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 11c | 244.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 76c | 209$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 76c | 179.64$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 165.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 140.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 11c | 136.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 97.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…8cabbacked No | 77c | 78.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…8f75backed Yes | 47c | 58.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 57.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed No | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 71c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…635dbacked No | 80c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.