Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1cf237a91ebdaa27b577c294cf4f46f7e4670aed437037c55bd05bb06e80c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 15c | 1,162$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,084$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 995.83$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 912.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 75c | 910$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 29c | 763.58$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…afa3backed No | 73c | 615.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 79c | 536.06$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb35…ea7cbacked Yes | 19c | 511.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 23c | 454$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…0026backed Yes | 21c | 280.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 65c | 222.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 200.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 72c | 198.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 159.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 18c | 145.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…e258backed No | 71c | 141.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 13c | 111.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 110.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…66e0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 99.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 99.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 17c | 57.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…7143backed Yes | 24c | 56.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 76c | 54.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…3036backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…2f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…3ea5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 48.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4468…5d2dbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9253…344cbacked No | 78c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 77c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…00c8backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…9e84backed No | 71c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…1975backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +145%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…8cabbacked No | 72c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…a3b4backed No | 78c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.