Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764d6bb41e717fce0ed710facbe685aa880d759278c038b56639e20484450522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 74c | 4,101$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.69 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 3,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 21c | 1,452$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…a472backed No | 5c | 1,386$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 959.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed No | 11c | 778.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 21c | 750$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked No | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 56c | 351.84$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.71 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…c05fbacked No | 11c | 340.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 45c | 270.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed Yes | 14c | 191$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 109.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…59c9backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…4b75backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…859cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…83e5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…1772backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748e…f4f2backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…96dabacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…72bebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…38ddbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…a6e2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.