Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73b1e8e9993114bd0b92588ecdc2a6f490ba9cc6f85844d927ae62e0b3c15ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 63c | 15,816$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,816.48 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 6,873$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.48 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 1c | 6,483$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…9b32backed Yes | 36c | 5,364$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,165$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 3,910$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 0c | 3,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 24c | 3,153$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.39 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 40c | 2,937$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.64 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 2,692$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 35c | 2,474$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.37 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…864ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,411$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 2,199$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,847$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 1,628$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.39 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 35c | 1,559$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.83 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…5fdfbacked No | 34c | 1,400$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 71c | 1,400$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.52 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 37c | 1,208$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.99 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked No | 32c | 1,043$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 34c | 1,025$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…f543backed Yes | 8c | 975$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…4c1dbacked Yes | 8c | 975$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…4c61backed Yes | 8c | 975$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…cb9cbacked Yes | 8c | 975$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5d…16febacked Yes | 8c | 940$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +311.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 24c | 929.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…f086backed Yes | 8c | 926$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +557.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…05cabacked Yes | 8c | 926$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…639fbacked Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…d92abacked Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,400%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…bc6ebacked Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…f956backed Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…a8f5backed Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…08cabacked Yes | 8c | 920$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…a405backed Yes | 8c | 918$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…ad15backed Yes | 8c | 918$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +557.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x603d…bd71backed Yes | 8c | 910$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e9…3741backed Yes | 8c | 910$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,182.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8f…c84ebacked Yes | 8c | 910$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc15…2dc7backed Yes | 8c | 909.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,135.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dc…aec2backed Yes | 8c | 908$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…51f9backed Yes | 8c | 908$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…3eaabacked Yes | 7c | 900$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,251.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6348…499fbacked Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fcbacked Yes | 8c | 899.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dac…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 899.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +541%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…4966backed Yes | 8c | 899.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,182.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…2c97backed Yes | 8c | 895$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…6abebacked Yes | 8c | 894.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,182.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…b95dbacked Yes | 7c | 890$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…dd4ebacked Yes | 7c | 890$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,229.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e7…6453backed Yes | 7c | 890$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…e28cbacked Yes | 7c | 890$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…e868backed Yes | 7c | 890$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…63b6backed Yes | 7c | 890$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…1eb3backed Yes | 7c | 875$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 7cpaid | +739.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…ce70backed Yes | 7c | 870$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +604.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…bf10backed Yes | 5c | 870$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…4b55backed Yes | 7c | 870$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…1a18backed Yes | 5c | 870$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…62b0backed Yes | 7c | 869.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +594.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…ce8cbacked Yes | 7c | 869.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,159.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…18adbacked Yes | 7c | 865$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,349.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…9b1abacked Yes | 7c | 860$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…de3fbacked Yes | 7c | 860$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…be59backed Yes | 8c | 860$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…ea95backed Yes | 7c | 858$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…db57backed Yes | 7c | 858$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…fb71backed Yes | 7c | 858$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…14d2backed Yes | 7c | 858$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372c…8842backed Yes | 7c | 855$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…e5c8backed Yes | 7c | 855$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…4140backed Yes | 8c | 855$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 33c | 750$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 32c | 747.91$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed No | 6c | 710.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…ef79backed Yes | 8c | 703$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…48c4backed Yes | 8c | 703$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…76a5backed Yes | 8c | 702$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…e88ebacked Yes | 8c | 702$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…e263backed No | 11c | 655.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 615.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…c05fbacked No | 31c | 565.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 41c | 493$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…8711backed No | 3c | 473.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 460.12$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x552b…f8bcbacked No | 3c | 455.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c429backed No | 3c | 425.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…2f3bbacked No | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 3c | 313.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…ad5cbacked No | 3c | 305.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed No | 31c | 301.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 73c | 270$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 4c | 256.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 252.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 60c | 244$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…e44dbacked No | 7c | 207.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.