Earnings · resolved market
Will Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08687859dade05f7029aadfbc704d41e299b6286d7b9e9f8e5a43fb47615f0a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 33c | 694.58$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.52 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 46c | 435.7$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.62 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 51c | 406.8$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.19 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed Yes | 67c | 199.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 192.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 187.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 49c | 139.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 47c | 106.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 50c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 49c | 91.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked No | 44c | 89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed No | 44c | 89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 66c | 77.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 60.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed No | 42c | 58.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 55c | 54.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 51c | 51.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…04c8backed Yes | 59c | 44.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 49c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080c…130cbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…03aabacked No | 50c | 34.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 50c | 33.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 34c | 32.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 54c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a9…3caebacked Yes | 67c | 24.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b943backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…3ea4backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…61e3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.