AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0914c9926194563c22b768a6eaa08a2e8e6e5d9ca3e487a9689b2ffc58dc754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 67c | 2,419$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.4 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 842$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 600$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 43c | 561.56$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd6…e102backed No | 76c | 520$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 5c | 238.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…d57ebacked No | 79c | 204.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd81…2bc2backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 20c | 164.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 9c | 154.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Yes | 64c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 144.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 79c | 133$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 76c | 118.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…8b29backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 101.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 76c | 99.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 44c | 92.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…9d22backed Yes | 21c | 59.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a5…4fa7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 23c | 47.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 30c | 34.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 70c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 60c | 20.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…9303backed No | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.