IPO · resolved market
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x415bf0c412811333304ab0701b74e8618d23f29ddeaa53f9ddf54e62020e552f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 53c | 577.63$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 385.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 276.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 19c | 198.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 46c | 157.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 155.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 13c | 148.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 50c | 54.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 46c | 37.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026?Yes won
- Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $50M and $55M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Encore Medical’s market cap be greater than $55M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.