World Politics · resolved market
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3f1f2bec1c92ff851c9b02c3c8bbc320e5aac7bc371ad0f615c5521a4494e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 7,325$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.94 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,991$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,897$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 2,016$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,985$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,855$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…d806backed Yes | 7c | 1,720$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…ddf0backed Yes | 9c | 1,138$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…96debacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,043$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…c059backed Yes | 3c | 653.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…d49fbacked Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…63e5backed Yes | 9c | 533.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 466.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 365.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 5c | 361.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 9c | 360.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 282.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 7c | 274.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b15cbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 7c | 242$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…36a9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 217.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 7c | 202.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9550backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…1d15backed Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…270fbacked Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 12c | 161.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…7994backed Yes | 13c | 103.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd465…76e4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.