TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Virtus.pro, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$571,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$667,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,201 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Virtus.pro50c139,798$69,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,761.2314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ51c93,192$47,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,309.7628748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro45c61,597$27,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,854.981,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc690…42b8backed MOUZ73c55,818$40,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,078.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ50c40,219$20,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,109.3940051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Virtus.pro25c31,049$7,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.2471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Virtus.pro44c14,927$6,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,580.9233746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MOUZ55c12,154$6,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,469.1415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ50c9,700$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,85045139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed MOUZ56c8,943$5,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,934.8422848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ56c5,847$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.8843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Virtus.pro8c5,837$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3647650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Virtus.pro1c5,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.55449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed MOUZ65c5,328$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.6918356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ55c4,994$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.5495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro21c4,622$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.151,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Virtus.pro13c4,492$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.2416547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked MOUZ66c4,472$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.956569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Virtus.pro45c4,427$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.9962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked MOUZ60c4,380$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75211960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked MOUZ73c4,100$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ64c4,082$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.0448954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Virtus.pro45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed MOUZ54c3,965$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.856647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro24c3,931$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.521,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro21c3,759$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.431,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ53c3,272$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.9189440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Virtus.pro30c3,250$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9925147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed MOUZ55c3,130$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.3256955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Virtus.pro24c3,045$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.399630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Virtus.pro45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Virtus.pro16c2,974$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.2425143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ54c2,911$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Virtus.pro28c2,871$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.7880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Virtus.pro42c2,671$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.248042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MOUZ55c2,659$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.5543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ57c2,644$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.961,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed MOUZ56c2,536$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.8615544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a4…9aabbacked Virtus.pro26c2,521$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.111233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Virtus.pro45c2,355$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.3256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed MOUZ56c2,277$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.7925248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Virtus.pro44c2,258$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4913228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ75c2,097$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.351,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ68c2,074$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.9467043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Virtus.pro26c2,017$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.3747046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Virtus.pro40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Virtus.pro7c1,871$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5365625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Virtus.pro45c1,844$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.9699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Virtus.pro27c1,764$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.682634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Virtus.pro18c1,647$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6750347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MOUZ50c1,634$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.0644645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed MOUZ75c1,515$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6615457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked Virtus.pro2c1,502$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2416932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed MOUZ57c1,476$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Virtus.pro46c1,357$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.0832148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked MOUZ56c1,304$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.7348843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Virtus.pro45c1,294$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.1315051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked MOUZ53c1,291$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.563141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed MOUZ77c1,273$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Virtus.pro41c1,250$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.494365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro16c1,217$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.11,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…ac20backed MOUZ54c1,216$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ50c1,213$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.2550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed MOUZ68c1,202$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked MOUZ73c1,199$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.88868.2%60 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Virtus.pro45c1,189$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.0116248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ55c1,173$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.8585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked MOUZ64c1,116$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9415244.7%68 W · 84 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed MOUZ54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.9412350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Virtus.pro25c1,093$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.815354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d1…555dbacked MOUZ58c1,072$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.235154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Virtus.pro27c1,034$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Virtus.pro45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed MOUZ56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ56c1,000$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.3319742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Virtus.pro15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ66c995.62$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.0360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed MOUZ55c972.89$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.515747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Virtus.pro50c942$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47137945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Virtus.pro47c933$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.513842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Virtus.pro43c920.88$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.987162%44 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed MOUZ59c918.3$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.9761745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked MOUZ54c901.74$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.836654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4152…5d75backed MOUZ53c899.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db3…7bddbacked Virtus.pro46c899.98$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Virtus.pro45c843$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9518544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed MOUZ58c837.76$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.2911744.4%52 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked MOUZ55c829.82$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.329948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed Virtus.pro18c807.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2311443.9%50 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro12c798.76$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.871,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b6…43d6backed MOUZ78c783.25$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked MOUZ55c749.99$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Virtus.pro22c748.1$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.210262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ58c728.75$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.691,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Virtus.pro19c703.02$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4879341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro46c699.99$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Virtus.pro37c677.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.886237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Virtus.pro17c656$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd49…515dbacked MOUZ68c646.58$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.129555.8%53 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Virtus.pro46c627.96$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.