Earnings · resolved market
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ce4020b83d09f10b671bee2016d4f359054f62eac58289d0e74d97c4c8c324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 1,255$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 16c | 1,236$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 999.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 16c | 776.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 11c | 750.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 13c | 699.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 622.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 554.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 11c | 454.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 14c | 397.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 13c | 382.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 349.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…9faabacked No | 19c | 260.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 9c | 218.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 11c | 217.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…b09cbacked No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…4b0ebacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 12c | 129.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080c…130cbacked No | 14c | 117.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 12c | 111.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 11c | 110.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 12c | 102.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 13c | 98.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 16c | 72.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed No | 22c | 55.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 78c | 35.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 55c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…ef90backed Yes | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ea72backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.