Earnings · resolved market
Will Waystar (WAY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd386542c6e77e555851e1461f08f9db8565cf168fa4907bc90c95e74873932a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa294…52eabacked No | 42c | 2,347$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…350ebacked No | 50c | 1,219$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 52c | 923.52$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.01 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 47c | 722.52$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.77 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…3e9cbacked No | 64c | 476$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 49c | 405.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 45c | 398.79$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 371.11$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 70c | 343$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 39c | 308.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed No | 67c | 274.16$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 36c | 273.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 207.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 47c | 188.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 26c | 186$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…17cdbacked Yes | 55c | 182.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 129.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 53c | 125.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 45c | 124.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 43c | 115.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 80c | 85.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 81.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed No | 69c | 77.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 42c | 71.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Yes | 33c | 70.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Yes | 33c | 69.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Yes | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Yes | 33c | 67.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Yes | 33c | 67.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 22c | 55.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 40c | 53.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 27c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f5…1e93backed Yes | 44c | 48.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 46.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 61c | 46.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 63c | 46.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 42c | 41.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 54c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 37.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked No | 50c | 32.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0d…8dd1backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…ec5abacked Yes | 54c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 46c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…ef28backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.