IPO · resolved market
Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $0.8B and $1B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955f3559d9ab1a14ca4798e6bc4698930ccaa6ced15dd1be63d7726de088d55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed No | 70c | 1,311$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 53c | 1,226$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.82 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 11c | 855.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 49c | 650.43$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.09 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…5843backed Yes | 46c | 430$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…f527backed No | 77c | 376.63$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 336.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 47c | 240$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 46c | 223.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 185.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 162.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 104$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…1cc8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…dab9backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…476dbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…32debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 46c | 35.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…69ebbacked Yes | 55c | 21.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358f…6602backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…8b2dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…b7dfbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $0.8B and $1B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $1.2B and $1.4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $1B and $1.2B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be less than $0.8B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.