Fed Rates · resolved market
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd577a7016922d0fa232e5bdfd0a947c176739ea834219bdc65cd69e46e7434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 12c | 15,157$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.42 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed Yes | 10c | 9,485$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…1ccfbacked Yes | 12c | 6,704$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 4,605$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.8 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a7…339ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,131$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…f43dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,155$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,037$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 785.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 15c | 675.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 625.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 4c | 570$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 543.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 478.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 12c | 454.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 12c | 440.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 320.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa95…6ac7backed Yes | 10c | 279.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf976…34b6backed Yes | 4c | 268.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 12c | 200.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…4443backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 10c | 185.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…c73cbacked Yes | 10c | 185.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…aa32backed Yes | 13c | 125.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 11c | 92.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…4375backed Yes | 34c | 45.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.