TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,219 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes13c9,176$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.973043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes49c2,167$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.932540%10 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes39c1,043$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35d7…026fbacked No76c820.31$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.312343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No78c791.54$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7715232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No61c736$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+194.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Yes78c639.36$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0230%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No76c617.47$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.932733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd509…d6b7backed Yes24c600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…0a7bbacked No76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes21c475.35$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7922948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No57c422.71$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.486653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes20c422$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No80c422$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes70c400$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes72c400$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes11c367.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.483020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No31c366.83$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9824433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes26c309$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3470%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2414019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No77c293.36$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9915431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes4c291.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes15c276.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6627222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc491…8012backed Yes28c255.23$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+147.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes27c225.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.736221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No61c224$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked Yes24c217.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.281040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked No45c211.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.113100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes49c204.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5633421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5831534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c184.18$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0533238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No74c183.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5710739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c182.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked No52c181.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.413961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes58c173.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes22c164.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.822437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed Yes28c162.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No77c151.02$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.667339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes16c144$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.048638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c138.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4249511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes21c122.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.238757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes60c116.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3312643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes17c114.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes47c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No64c102.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3722833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes51c99.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.44953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes20c92.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.589646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c91.22$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3510946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No77c88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.413036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes62c86.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.642544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No61c83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+259.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No75c79.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5521155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c78.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7912049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…3ecebacked No42c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.031338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes27c75.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No77c73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.798831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4abc…52cabacked Yes29c69.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed Yes66c64.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-43.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c64.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.44537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes25c64.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes19c63.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16132.8%20 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes23c62.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.424537.8%17 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No40c62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.32245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes56c61.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3312440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes45c60.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c56.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No74c56.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.377429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c55.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6766914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.519643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes56c49.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.071540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes28c44.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes30c44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes56c43.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.598741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No50c40.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.912150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No74c39.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.191560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec6…f2b6backed Yes26c39.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes45c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No72c33.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.532638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.19147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes63c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.126841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba01…2722backed Yes45c23.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked No71c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes55c22.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No76c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2820542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No80c17.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.411250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4f…58c7backed Yes71c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes69c15.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.