Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0808f77c6b8f765eead45f8d182d0f4a8aa21f0aba2098364b0619c7aa31f395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,555$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c92…c084backed No | 1c | 1,561$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 1,414$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 46c | 663.29$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.59 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 57c | 641.15$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.28 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 18c | 637.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7184…7703backed Yes | 52c | 577.1$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 35c | 544.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 71c | 537.04$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 42c | 530.38$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.82 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 524.63$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 59c | 506.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +208%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…cb70backed No | 27c | 493.56$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 3c | 427.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 409.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 55c | 408.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed Yes | 50c | 396.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 46c | 391.28$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…5d97backed Yes | 71c | 387.53$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 55c | 385.14$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 44c | 380.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…d64bbacked No | 39c | 373.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 24c | 311.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 276.03$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 44c | 260.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…adc5backed Yes | 79c | 252.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…cb3abacked No | 5c | 240.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 234.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…45fbbacked No | 9c | 229.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 36c | 220.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 216.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed No | 55c | 215.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00a…da1bbacked No | 19c | 214.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…5b41backed Yes | 50c | 201.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 76c | 201.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 57c | 199.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…92b8backed Yes | 55c | 179.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…4db9backed No | 25c | 168.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 168.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…cc97backed Yes | 48c | 162.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 153.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 51c | 150.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 52c | 144.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 53c | 133.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…6c1ebacked Yes | 78c | 127.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 22c | 127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…843abacked Yes | 45c | 111.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 11c | 110.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…cd88backed Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a5efbacked No | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8667…025fbacked Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…9e85backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…91adbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…178dbacked Yes | 75c | 97.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 57c | 92.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae8…81c0backed No | 57c | 88.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 16c | 88.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…2d3ebacked Yes | 66c | 85.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 60c | 83.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8c…1c84backed No | 58c | 82.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3236…da77backed Yes | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7d…0612backed Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…9019backed Yes | 44c | 74.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…77cfbacked No | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…8feebacked Yes | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed No | 15c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 44c | 67.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…8e18backed Yes | 47c | 64.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…0f7bbacked Yes | 79c | 60.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…d6edbacked Yes | 47c | 60.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832e…f758backed No | 18c | 57.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 78c | 55.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…93d3backed Yes | 50c | 54.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe11…d2e6backed No | 19c | 53.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…1e72backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…eaa6backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…afc5backed Yes | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…b3c4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…4deabacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…6e1ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…ba3fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…4947backed No | 41c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes | 77c | 44.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd157…a068backed Yes | 45c | 44.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…3ab0backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7393…e14dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 40c | 42.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f63…e7f8backed Yes | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…eab7backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.