Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb1ea662b616493063f6e4a7beaff2cf35f4b465fbb023a4bb15ded9c012dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 8c | 10,000$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,534$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 6,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 40c | 4,600$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.98 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 2c | 2,291$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 52c | 2,273$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.24 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 7c | 2,140$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked No | 53c | 1,454$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.02 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed1…cc38backed Yes | 5c | 600.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 21c | 523.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 501.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 5c | 432.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 341.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…aa05backed No | 69c | 292.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…da9dbacked Yes | 7c | 286.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 249.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.11 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…e575backed Yes | 15c | 242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…540dbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 62c | 190$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…48c6backed No | 70c | 186.7$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a78…d812backed No | 70c | 164.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…8509backed No | 70c | 164.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…1288backed No | 69c | 157.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…120ebacked No | 69c | 155.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f8…369bbacked No | 69c | 149.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 50c | 149.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae98…a15ebacked Yes | 74c | 148.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…d32cbacked Yes | 74c | 147.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd7…c25cbacked No | 70c | 141.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…7226backed No | 69c | 137.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…7f13backed Yes | 8c | 128.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ce…2f5ebacked No | 69c | 118.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…3b54backed No | 74c | 114.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 69c | 114.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc244…816cbacked No | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 85.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 67.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…d8d7backed No | 69c | 63.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 50.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 24c | 42.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…246fbacked No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…f9f3backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe108…e9aebacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.