Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d8503ac63c0e55c3926fc9a903aee46ad2e1b28532af32f239eeda4aa6dbaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed Yes | 6c | 14,745$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 10c | 9,031$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e4…f459backed Yes | 7c | 8,449$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 6,756$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.13 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,427$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 2,655$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 2,589$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…8b50backed Yes | 4c | 2,052$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 6c | 2,048$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06e…c12cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,522$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 1,235$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,233$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,198$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…6fc4backed Yes | 7c | 1,043$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,014$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 878.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 815.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 748.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 734.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 5c | 728.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f4…ced3backed Yes | 3c | 581.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 523.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 511.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 5c | 467.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 461.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 6c | 455$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes | 7c | 436.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 326$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 7c | 237.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 234.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Yes | 7c | 225.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 212.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 210.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 8c | 172.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 165.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.