Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39be5df0e6cf54b4f280c5645f5635b32273a9b32b4c71e085ecb2267ce7e9a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 15c | 2,280$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 1,994$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 1,521$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.51 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 48c | 1,147$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,034$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 72c | 696.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 77c | 599.55$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked Yes | 76c | 595.49$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 468.43$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 32c | 467.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 59c | 401.97$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 47c | 390$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 33c | 370$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 67c | 370$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 51c | 368.94$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 332.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 21c | 318.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.28 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 60c | 212.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 68c | 198.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 187.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 66c | 166$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 80c | 160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed No | 34c | 158.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 135.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 27c | 110.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 104$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…e2a3backed Yes | 22c | 91.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 19c | 86.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 86.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…4d34backed Yes | 66c | 65.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 62.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 34c | 53.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…ea65backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 41c | 41.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…6ab1backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 34c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…f41fbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 72c | 29.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked Yes | 58c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed Yes | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.