Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b70cb84fa6529b54d2d569d0fcfd49333874277bd8a1a2449d81d15b6a8846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 2,475$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.8 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 2,132$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.9 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,006$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 1,674$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.54 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 18c | 1,386$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 40c | 1,200$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.27 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 5c | 1,155$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 879.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed No | 32c | 807.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 15c | 533.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 43c | 514.77$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.92 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 65c | 485.87$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.37 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 67c | 467.65$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 20c | 466.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 34c | 317.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 6c | 237.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…27f2backed Yes | 57c | 225$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 15c | 218.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 16c | 183.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…e1d4backed Yes | 61c | 163.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 133.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…1760backed Yes | 50c | 106.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efb…d189backed Yes | 62c | 105.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 100.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 25c | 97.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 56c | 90.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 81.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6backed Yes | 56c | 80.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 55c | 77.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 15c | 75.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 21c | 62.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 62.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed No | 22c | 57.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed Yes | 79c | 55.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…b3c6backed Yes | 71c | 42.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…bb9cbacked Yes | 71c | 37.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 36c | 28.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160e…617dbacked Yes | 57c | 27.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…23bebacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…d914backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.