Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64267b073739b3da05434e7d55526aaeb70542be75abbe245edbca9750d899f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 49c | 3,354$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.97 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…b8dcbacked No | 2c | 2,001$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +1,107.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.84 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 1,078$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.18 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 44c | 1,000$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 994.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.22 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 5c | 805.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 634$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 6c | 222.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 50c | 142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 127$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 70c | 112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 104.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 47c | 63.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 74c | 58.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.