Middle East · resolved market
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd43b704a6d32ca6578c870b76b93e4b493d149db0af6293bebf9732265b2fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 12c | 1,686$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 28c | 1,060$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.42 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…02c8backed Yes | 13c | 742.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 655.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 20c | 651.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 589.66$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 550.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 3c | 484.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 78c | 482.99$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 454.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 23c | 438.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 77c | 431.44$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 399.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 30c | 375.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 341.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 322.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes | 19c | 258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 66c | 241$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 35c | 200.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 172.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 69c | 161$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 16c | 147.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 9c | 128$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 126$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 125.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 11c | 100.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 11c | 97.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 96.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69fe…8611backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 78c | 81.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 73c | 81.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…18e7backed Yes | 25c | 80.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…4b75backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…df21backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 71.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 25c | 62.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…96dabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 21c | 49.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…83e5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 77c | 28.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…47a7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…72bebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…244abacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked No | 80c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748e…f4f2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…a2f1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…cf3cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…a6e2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…71a2backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +37%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?this page
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.